My only hole in one came on the 17th hole at Ōhope in 1997. That was a long time ago now, and I am still waiting for the next one.
I know golfers who have had several. I also know some very good players who have never had one. If nothing else, that should tell you an ace is not a reliable measure of how good someone is at golf.
My honest answer: a hole in one is very difficult, even for a good golfer. Skill gives you better opportunities, but the ball still needs to finish in a very small target.
What are the odds of getting a hole in one?
One commonly quoted estimate is around one in 12,500 for an amateur golfer on a par three. That figure is published by Hole In One International, a specialist prize insurer. The National Hole-in-One Registry gives a slightly different figure of 12,000 to one for an average player.
Treat those as broad estimates. They are not a personalised forecast for your next round, and a short wedge shot is a very different opportunity from a long iron into a strong wind.
The other important distinction is that the familiar 12,500 figure refers to an opportunity on a par three, not every golf shot and not a promise of one ace every 12,500 rounds.
Is a hole in one skill or luck?
Both. A golfer who repeatedly hits the correct distance and starts the ball near the intended line gives it more chances to finish close. Better contact and distance control are useful whether the ball goes in or not.
But the final result can depend on a bounce, the slope around the hole and how much pace the ball has when it reaches the cup. A beautifully struck shot might stop a few centimetres away. A less impressive strike might land short, run up the green and disappear.
You do not have to apologise for the second version. There is no box on the scorecard asking whether the contact sounded particularly nice.
Tiger's famous Phoenix hole in one
One ace that will always stick in my mind is Tiger Woods at the 1997 Phoenix Open. On 25 January, he holed a 9 iron on the 16th at TPC Scottsdale, and the crowd went absolutely wild. The PGA TOUR's account describes cups and cans being thrown as people celebrated.
It was early in his professional career, about five months after he turned pro, but not his first tournament. He had actually made a hole in one during his professional debut at the 1996 Greater Milwaukee Open as well.
Tiger and I both made an ace in 1997. He has had a rather different golfing career since, but I am still happy to claim that small bit of common ground.
Does playing more mean you are eventually due one?
Playing more gives you more opportunities. It does not make the next tee shot owe you anything.
For example, 50 rounds on a course with four par threes would give you 200 par-three tee shots. That is plenty of chances to hit a memorable one, but it is still possible to finish the year without an ace.
The fact that your previous shots missed does not, by itself, make the next one more likely to go in. Your game and the conditions can change; the hole does not remember your near misses.
If you have played for years without one, I would keep enjoying the golf. Waiting for an ace to make a season worthwhile is a fairly demanding way to keep score.
What can you practise that actually helps?
Work on the things that help every iron shot: reliable contact, a predictable starting direction and knowing how far your clubs normally carry.
Our guide to measuring your golf club distances is a useful starting point. The distance you usually hit a 7 iron matters more than the one you hit perfectly last summer.
At the Golf 360 driving range, choose a target and change clubs rather than repeatedly hitting the same shot until one looks good. Give yourself a fresh distance and one attempt, as you would on a par three.
That is also the idea behind taking your range game onto the course. Practise preparing for a shot, not just repeating a swing.
Should you aim at every flag?
I would rather see you make a sensible decision than chase a tiny chance at the expense of your score.
If the flag is tucked behind a bunker with little green to work with, the middle of the green may be the better target. A comfortable two-putt par is still a good result, even if it does not require anyone to buy a commemorative frame.
When the flag is accessible, choose a club that suits the carry, account for the wind and make your normal swing. Trying to steer the ball into the cup generally adds another thought you do not need.
Our advice on being more consistent in golf applies here too. Build your score around decisions you can repeat.
What should you do if you make one?
Enjoy it. Take a photo, keep the ball if you want a souvenir, and note the date, course, hole, club, distance and who was playing with you. Those little details become harder to remember than you expect.
Let the club know as well, particularly during a competition, and follow its process for recording the achievement.
Then give yourself a moment before the next tee shot. The hole after an ace still needs playing, and your playing partners may be considerably less interested in helping you concentrate.
Final thoughts: enjoy the chance, not just the result
A hole in one is a lovely combination of a golf shot and a very helpful outcome. You can improve the shot. You cannot order the outcome.
Work on your contact and distances, choose sensible targets and enjoy those moments when the ball is heading straight at the flag. A tap-in birdie is a pretty good consolation prize.
If your iron play needs a hand, our coaching team in Mount Maunganui can help you work on a more reliable strike. I would measure that progress in better golf, rather than promises of an ace.
FAQs
How likely is an amateur golfer to get a hole in one?
A commonly quoted estimate is about one in 12,500 on a par three. It is a broad estimate, with the actual opportunity depending on the golfer, hole and conditions.
Can a beginner get a hole in one?
Yes. A beginner can hit a shot that goes in. Better skills help you produce more good opportunities, but an ace is not reserved for low-handicap golfers.
Am I more likely to get one after years of near misses?
The near misses alone do not make you due. Playing more creates more opportunities, but your next shot still depends on your golf and the conditions.
Are shorter par threes easier to ace?
A shorter hole may let you use a club you strike more confidently, but the pin position, wind and green contours still matter. A short hole is not automatically an easy hole in one.
Do you need to hit a perfect shot?
No. A fortunate bounce or run along the ground can produce an ace. A perfectly struck shot can also finish close without going in.
Happy golfing,
Scott
